The Oscars: Predictions & Desires

The Nominations for the 84th Academy Awards came in early this morning and they are pretty much what everyone expected with a few exceptions here and there.  I am very happy to see Hugo get so much love with 11 Nominations, but the buzz right now is that The Artist is the film to beat.  Both films are excellent and they both sorta feed into the same sorta Nostalgia porn that's so popular of late.

Okay, so if Harry Knowles can blather on about this stuff, so can I.

BEST PICTURE:

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
WAR HORSE
THE TREE OF LIFE
MONEYBALL

As stated earlier, The Artist appears to be the film to beat.  Don't listen to all the backlash rolling around out there in Internetland, it's an amazingly emotional film that deserves all the technical and emotional love that's flowing it's way.  I'm still baffled by all the Moneyball love.  It was a decent film, and I definitely had a good time while I was watching it, but it was an experience that left me the moment I walked out of the theater.  The Descendants was excellent, and I could see this upsetting both The Artist & Hugo (since those films could easily split The Academy).  Midnight in Paris is my third favorite film on this list, and it also speaks to the same kind of feelings as The Artist & Hugo except it tells us to let go of our geek love and live a real life.  War Horse was okay.  Typical Spielberg emotional manipulation with some stunning visuals.  The Tree of Life is the bonkers film on the list and the critical darling.  It was definitely a cinematic adventure and I totally respect that.  Haven't seen The Help, guess I'll have to rent it before Febuary 26th.  And Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is the real shock here.  From all accounts it's a terrible movie, but now I'm going to have to check it out.

Prediction:  THE ARTIST

Desire:  HUGO

BEST DIRECTOR:

Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Alexander Payne, THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorsese, HUGO
Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE

This is a bit of a tough call.  I think Scorsese will take the prize over Hazanavicius cuz that's really the way I want it to play out.  This just feels like one of those year's where The Academy splits the love between Picture & Director.  Again Payne could steal the votes from a split Academy but I think that's less likly in the Director category.  But I would totally be happy if Malick walked away (or at least one of his representatives since there's no way he's showing up for the party) with the gold.

Prediction:  MARTIN SCORSESE

Desire:  MARTIN SCORSESE

BEST ACTOR:

Demian Bichir, A BETTER LIFE
George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin, THE ARTIST
Gary Oldman, TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY
Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL

Man, who would have thought in the mid 90s when George Clooney was starring in From Dusk Till Dawn and Brad Pitt was chasing serial killers in Seven that the two pretty boys would be duking it out in the same Best Actor category in 2011?  I DID!  The 90s is where I discovered the badassery of Clooney/Pitt and I'm so glad that the Academy has joined in the world's celebration of their ridiculous People Magazine domination.  I definitely want Clooney to have this for The Descendants.  Yes, it was my single favorite performance of last year and Clooney deserves the cred for choosing odd, small roles in an arena where he could be cranking out Batman & Robins over and over (well, maybe not Batman & Robins but definitely some generic Peacekeepers).  Again, Pitt was decent in Moneyball but that film was just blah for me.  Gary Oldman is my personal runner-up for this category cuz no one does chameleon work quite like that man.  Jean Dujardin was joyous in The Artist and spawned Matt to grow a pencil thin mustache for a week so that's gotta count for something.  And I haven't seen A Better Life so I've got nothing to say on Demian Bichir.

Prediction:  GEORGE CLOONEY

Desire:  GEORGE CLOONEY

BEST ACTRESS:

Glenn Close, ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis, THE HELP
Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY
Rooney Mara, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Michelle Williams, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

Well, this is a tough category for me cuz I've only seen one film on the list:  The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.  And I thought that was only o-kay.  Mara was violently strong in her depiction of Salander but I just can't get too enthused about this movie.  She wins my Desire by default.  And I don't really have confidence in my prediction here.  Part of me wants to say Streep gets it for The Iron Lady cuz she got the Globe and all, but word has it that The Iron Lady is a flat film.  I think I'm going to go with Viola Davis cuz the world seems to be completely in love with The Help these days.  Really do need to see what all the fuss is about.

Prediction:  VIOLA DAVIS

Desire:  ROONEY MARA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Kenneth Branagh, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Jonah Hill, MONEYBALL
Nick Nolte, WARRIOR
Cristopher Plummer, BEGINNERS
Max von Sydow, EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE

Oh My God!  What is Jonah Hill doing on this list!?!?!?  Seriously people!  Moneyball was only OKAY!  But there you have it, good for you kid, but I seriously doubt we'll see you here next year for 21 Jump Street.  This award is owned by Christopher Plummer.  He was amazing in Beginners and he's amazing in everything else.  Nick Nolte was solid in Warrior but that movie was more blase than Moneyball.  And again, very strange seeing Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close getting love but you have to dig Max von Sydow.  Haven't seen My Week With Marilyn but good show for Branagh.  The real crime here is that Albert Brooks got nothing for his scary ass turn in Drive.

Prediction:  CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER

Desire:  CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  

Berenice Bejo, THE ARTIST

Jessica Chastain, THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy, BRIDESMAIDS
Janet McTeer, ALBERT NOBBS
Octavia Spencer, THE HELP

Here's another category that I have no clue about.  I've only seen The Artist, and I thought Bejo was absolutely charming in the film.  Was I knocked outta my seat by her performance?  No.  I'm guessing the award is going to Spencer based on the Globe win.  But McCarthy could surprise everyone and take it for Bridesmaids, another film I have absolutely no desire to see but critics & fans seem to think it's the bee's knees.  Personally, I'm just sick and tired of gross out humor whatever the gender.

Prediction:  OCTAVIA SPENCER

Desire:  BERENICE JEJO

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, THE DESCENDANTS
John Logan, HUGO
George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, THE IDES OF MARCH
Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin (story by Stan Chervin) MONEYBALL
Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan, TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY

I've never been good with my screenplay predictions, but I'm betting on The Descendants.  HUGO could get the Best Picture prize and will most likely snag Best Director, but I don't think Logan has a chance here.  But having read the children's book he should totally get it cuz he brought a lot of much-needed character to that film.  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy though was an absolutely amazing film and deserves to be on the Best Picture list (especially if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and Moneyball snuck their way in, so I want O'Connor & Straughan to walk away happy.

Prediction:  THE DESCENDANTS

Desire:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo, BRIDESMAIDS
J.C. Chandor, MARGIN CALL
Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Asghar Farhadi, A SEPARATION

Another tough call.  Could Bridesmaids take it?  Don't think so.  Again, populace choice.  The Artist seems to all be about directions, style, and performance.  Margin Call is your Glengary Glen Ross wannabe.  And I haven't seen A Separation and I don't think a lot of others have yet either, so good luck.  No, I think Woody Allen takes it for Midnight in Paris and I am shocked to say that I think that's the right choice.  Midnight in Paris is a charming film, and a great geek film!  And a film that I should probably pay close attention to, but really don't want to walk away with the message...

Prediction:  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Desire:  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

A CAT IN PARIS
CHICO AND RITA
KUNG FU PANDA 2
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO

I guess the surprise here is that The Adventures of TinTin didn't find it's way onto the list, but I have a feeling that's because The Academy doesn't know what to make of Motion Capture quite yet.  Hence, Andy Serkis not winding up on the Best Supporting Actor list for Rise of the Planet of the Apes.  But I think they can get behind what Gore Verbinski tried to do with E-Motion Capture and Rango.  That's my prediction and my desire.  In fact, if I made up these lists Rango would be on the Best Picture list as well.  It's a stunning film, with even more amazing visuals.  ILM's first animated film will be a tough one to beat.  Puss in Boots was fun though, much more so than those god awful Shrek pictures.  And Kung Fu Panda 2 was as well.  But I don't remember a single thing about it.  As goes for A Cat In Paris & Chico and Rita...but that's because I've never even heard of those films.

Prediction:  RANGO

Desire:  RANGO

Okay, that's all the energy I have for the day.  Don't know how Knowles gets through all these awards every year.  Fingers crossed that I'm somewhat accurate with my predictions, but who really knows.  Not me.  Check back here on 2/26/12 I'm gonna try and do a live-broadcast kinda thing.  We'll see.

--Brad