Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Drum Roll, please...






So, Brad and I, with the profound help and prompting of fellow traveler on the Road of Dorkness, Darren, are getting ready to go all multimedia on you're buttocks.  Coming soon... In the Mouth of Dorkness: The Podcast (!!!).  That's right.  If reading a blog filled with our sometimes outlandish opinions isn't enough for you, you'll be able to hear us in the surround-o-scape of digital audio beamed into your house/car by the magic of wave motion technology (all the way from the future!). 



I totally know how technology works.  And Brad is a wiz with machines.

The files are in the computer?!

Thank goodness for Darren.



-Matt

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Book Review: Our Final Invention


    I have found the true heir to H.P. Lovecraft, and it is documentary filmmaker turned herald of the AI apocalypse, James Barrat.  No, his book is not a tale of a tortured artist who learns too many of the secrets of the universe and is driven mad by it.  Or is it?  Whatever the case, he presents a vision of the world so soul searingly, existentially terrifying that it belongs on the shelf with the master of cosmic horror.  This is a sobering look at the very real, very possible ending to all of us, building right below our very noses, and under our typing fingertips.  For a pro-tech, futurist like myself, this book is a grim dark side for my usual upbeat visions of a world without want.

One of the less grim scenarios...

    Barrat looks into the building wave of artificial intelligence, the possibilities of human level (and more, superior to human) intelligence, and does not doubt that it’s on the way.  What he doubts, is that it will be a good thing.  I believe…well, I want to believe…that we’re moving in the right direction (overall), and that the future is bright.  I also have an instant mistrust of folks who preach fear of advancements and refuse to look on the bright side of technology.  I’ve also never much bought into the idea that superiority equals maliciousness, which is all part of the slave mentality that infects us as a species.  That said, I can’t find fault in Barrat’s argument.  He makes an excellent case for the terrifying dangers the creation of a human level (or higher) computer mind.  The profound alien nature of a computer mind is where the key trouble lies.  And this, is where I first connected Barrat with Lovecraft.  Both envision something so far beyond our ability to comprehend or control that we would stand no chance against it.  The concept I found most chilling is summed up in the quote from Eliezer Yudkowsky.  “The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else.”  It isn’t that Barrat believes a human or more level intelligence would want to kill us.  It’s that it won’t share our interests or values, and we might not be able to even understand what its interests or values are.  We may quickly find that we are little more than ants before its unknowing, uncaring feet.


    My hope is that we as a people can shift our thinking and action in the direction of safety.  I have hope.  I do.  But I have a profound worry, because I can’t pretend I don’t see the opposite every day.  With people steadfastly ignoring scientific findings all the time, from climate change to the benefits of genetically modified foods, and with so many willing to step over their mother for a chance at a few extra bucks, I have worries.  And thanks to this book, I find that I have a fear I never knew about.  I don’t want to die by incineration from the waste heat of trillions of nanobots assembling each other.  That may have just surpassed tidal wave on my list of things I most want to avoid getting killed by.


    This book should be read.  Futurists and optimists like myself need a dose of reasoned descent on occasion.  I think many of us become so inured to the fear mongering, backward looking anti-science of Hollywood movies and uninformed man-on-the-streets, that we build up a wall around our optimism.  This wall blocks our view of the very real threats that are out there.  With so many people crying wolf constantly, the real problems can easily be ignored.  And I think that James Barrat has produced a well thought out and sobering call to action.  He doesn’t preach a halt to progress or a return to ‘simpler times.’  He suggests a safe and cautious handling of a potentially cataclysmic technology that would make the atom bomb seem like kids play.  He’s not talking about a danger to a city or a country.  He’s not even talking about danger to our planet.  The kind of scenarios Barrat suggests are existence erasing, galaxy polluting disasters.  I do believe that our future will be tied with artificial intelligence, and that future could be amazing on a level beyond the wildest science fiction stories.  But the danger must be understood, and we must protect ourselves and our future.



Our Final Invention
Author: James Barrat
Publisher: Thomas Dunn Books
ISBN: 978-0-312-62237-4

-Matthew J. Constantine

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Book Review: The Golden Age



    Over the last decade or so, I’ve shifted away from reading fiction, toward primarily history or science texts, with occasional stop-offs at cultural studies and philosophy.  When I do read novels, I read almost exclusively science fiction or pulp fiction.  Just the way I am.  And because I’m me, most of the science fiction I read is older stuff, from the 60s or earlier.  Part of this is because of the trends of the past few decades in content, but a lot of it is in the trends in style.  I have a saying: “If you can’t say it in 250 pages, you’re probably saying it wrong.  If you can’t say it in 500 pages, you are saying it wrong.”  It’s a very rare book that makes even starts to test the validity of that statement.  With the rise of the Kevin J. Anderson/Robert Jordan/Terry Goodkind type of ‘death of trees’ fiction (I once heard Robert Jordan called ‘The Death of Trees’ due to the absolute shocking page count of his so long he died before he could finish Wheel of Time series), I've found myself uninterested in sitting down to so many gigantic books, no matter how interesting the story seemed.  Especially with my more active consumption of non-fiction, I couldn’t see the point in investing in some 600, 900, 1200 page monster novel that could probably have been edited down to 300 pages without losing a bit of the meat.  Still, on occasion, I spot a longer book that grabs my attention for some reason.  Something about the concept, some hint that there might be something special in there.  One such book was The Golden Age.  John C. Wright seems to be a rising (risen?) star in new science fiction, delving into grand space opera, which thank goodness seems to be making a comeback.


    Besides bloated page counts, the recent decades’ glut of military/alternate history has become tiresome in the extreme.  For years, walking into any given bookstore chain’s science fiction section you could be sure to find plenty of John Ringo type military stuff, Harry Turtledove type alternate history stuff, and shelves upon shelves of vampire/werewolf/demon/angel romance garbage.  But other than a few core classics like Ringworld or Starship Troopers, precious little solid science fiction.  That seems to be changing and I’m glad of it.  Wright has crafted a book that reaches back into the mind expanding insanity of some Olaf Staplrdon or William Hope Hodgeson and blends it with the most wild and out there theories of transhumanism and post singularity crazy.  In The Golden Age, we are transported to a point so far into the future that while some people may resemble 21st century humans, outside of a few fringe extremist groups, few would be recognizable in any meaningful way to a person of our time.  These are world builders, mass minds, sentient software, nomadic intelligences, and things harder to explain.


    Against this alien future, human passions and frailties still lurk.  The battle between the individual and the collective, between ambition and security, between peace and a life worth living.  A technological Eden, it may also be the ultimate trap, a glorious multi-millennial burnout of a species.  When humanity has become as gods, how will they use their power?  Do we need conflict to make things worth while?  Must we always strive, or may we finally be content?  Is dangerous and potentially devastating recklessness evil, or is it necessary for a species to survive and thrive?  These are some of the questions at the heart of the book.  Though the central question for much of the book is, ‘what did Phaeton do?’  Our protagonist is part of the elite of this Golden Age.  He’s a prime mover and shaker, responsible for vast sums of money and energy.  But when he finds himself unable to shake a vague malaise while attending a massive world party, he begins to unravel a mystery.  Why do people look at him with trepidation?  Why do people seem to be talking about him in hushed voices?  And what could possibly have prompted an entire society to be willing to edit out large chunks of their memory; what could have been so bad, and what was Phaeton’s role in it all?


    This isn’t an action adventure novel.  It isn’t a war story.  And Wright doesn’t go out of his way to explain things to you.  You’ve got to pay attention and you’ve got to think.  He doesn’t make it easy, but he also doesn’t make it unnecessarily difficult.  And the book doesn’t end on a cliffhanger, however the story is unfinished.  So, at some point I’ve got to grab a copy of The Phoenix Exhalant.  I’m very curious to see what is next for this Golden Age of Humanity.




The Golden Age
Author: John C. Wright
Publisher: TOR
ISBN: 0-812-57984-4

-Matt

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Book Review: Scatter, Adapt, and Rembember



    As I was writing my Soap Box rant a couple weeks ago, I happened to get an advanced reader copy of Annalee Newitz’s new book…which was pretty much a well researched and more expansive version of the rant I was working on.  Didn’t stop me from writing it, of course.  In this book (coming in May), Newitz looks at how humanity might go about surviving inevitable problems.  Her basic premise is that there will be some kind of extinction event.  It will happen.  And there are things that we can do, places we can go that will allow humanity (in some way) to come out the other side.  For a book about the end of the world as we know it, it’s actually a very uplifting and positive work.


    To begin with, according to Newitz, something is going to happen.  Will it be wild climate change (hot-cold-hot), megavolcanoes, meteor strikes, radiation clouds, plagues, artificial intelligence?  Maybe a little of each.  The question isn’t if humanity will face massive and devastating, game changing events in our future, it’s how we will deal with them.  She looks first to the past, the Earth’s many previous extinction events.  From an invasive life form that created an environmental disaster so profound the planet’s atmosphere has never been the same and almost all life alive at the time did not survive, through the Great Dying where complex food webs collapsed, to the death of the dinosaurs, to a few points in Human history where we almost didn’t make it, she lets us see that extinction events are not new, they’re not pretty, but they’re not inescapable.  Humans are in a unique position in the entire history of the Earth.  We have the abilities the book's title names.  We have a long history of scattering, finding new places to live.  We are great adapters, living in places where nobody else can, shaping the world around us to fit our needs in ways nothing else can, and even shaping ourselves.  And we have the ability to communicate, through speech, art, the written word (a heartening shout-out for science fiction in this book, too), etc. so that as cultures and a species, we can remember what has happened, even figure out how things went down before we ever existed.  We have vast storehouses of knowledge and wisdom that will aid us during whatever problems we’ll face.  Blue-green algae didn’t have that.  The dinosaurs didn’t have that.  We’ve got it.


    Within the first few pages, I was happy to see that Newitz does not fall into the all too common group of self-hating environmentally conscious people, the ‘Earth would be better without us’ people.  Good sweet crap, that’s an attitude I don’t have any patience for.  She doesn’t stew in guilt about what our ancestors did or didn’t do, nor for what goes on to this day.  Getting past all that tomfoolery, she states things as they are, to the best of her knowledge (which is well researched, with testimony from a great deal of them-thar smart peoples).  The weather is shifting.  Is it because of human activity or a natural process?  In many ways the point is moot.  It’s happening, and that’s what we have to deal with.  Obviously, if Humanity is causing it, we should know and change our behavior accordingly, but the climate is shifting and it’s shifting faster than we can fix simply by stopping the most damaging of behaviors we practice.  And it’s happening even if our pollution has nothing to do with it.  The point isn’t to assign blame, point fingers, wring hands, rend clothing, and cry out ‘the End is nigh.’  The point is to figure out what is happening and how we can a) counteract it or b) live through it.  And when she talks about living through it, she isn’t just talking about us.  She’s talking about taking as much of the ecosystem through the crucible as possible, and out the other side.


    Obvious topics like alternative sources of energy get some mention.  At this point, I think all but the most obtuse and backward facing folk understand that whatever happens and wherever things go, oil, coal, and natural gas are not permanent fixes for our energy needs.  Even if you can somehow manage to block your eyes to all the environmental damage they do, there is a finite amount.  They will run out.  I don’t even advocate the complete abandonment of them.  But when you rely on only a couple sources of energy, you make yourself vulnerable.  Wind, geothermal, solar, hydro, etc.  Spread it out, make it work where it makes sense.  That all leads into something I’ve been thinking a lot about lately, which is building smarter, to live better and use less energy.  This is where things get nuts.  Self-healing cities that generate much of their own food and power?  Oh yeah.  And Newitz makes a very valid point, that not every city of the future would work the same way.  Solutions in one region might not work somewhere else.  Societal considerations might dictate major differences.  In my recent article, I was focused primarily on the US, but even so, New England and California may share a good deal, culturally, but are also quite different.  Maybe a city grown and cultivated like a forest might work in one place, while a primarily underground city of hydroponic farms and subways might work somewhere else.


    From there she looks outward, away from the Earth.  I have heard so many people say things like ‘we need to solve our problems here on Earth,’ or ‘this money could be spent better,’ or what have you.  Gah.  We haven’t ‘solved our problems’ in a hundred thousand years, but we haven’t let that stop us from creating great music or art, from discovering the building blocks of the universe, or from crossing the oceans.  And where is that money going to be better spent?  On a bomb that could blow up the world a 31st time?  Another bail out for corporate fat-cats?  Another study on why prisoners feel a desire to escape?  Or should we spend money on creating new industries, discovering the universe, and getting a few of our eggs out of the one basket they’ve been in since the dawn of time?  I vote for the latter.  Developing a means to get people into space for a relatively low cost is the next step.  From there, the sky is no longer the limit.  I don’t plan to die.  But if that plan doesn’t work out, I can die with some satisfaction if humans are living on another world.  Newitz’s book contains some tantalizing hints at some of the things being explored and developed right now.


    So yeah, raging death is lurking in the shadows of tomorrow.  But, in spite of that, the future is indeed so bright I feel the need to wear sunglasses.  Annalee Newitz provides a kind of inoculation against the relentless negativity constantly dished out by past-loving futurephobes.  It’s not about Left or Right; Liberal or Conservative.  It’s about learning from the past, adapting to the ever changing present, and having the collective cultural balls to strike out into that next horizon.  A very readable book, and a must read for those looking to keep this Human Train a’rolling.



Scatter, Adapt, And Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction
Author: Annalee Newitz
Publisher: Doubleday
ISBN: 978-0-385-53591-5

-Matt

Note: I don’t know if it’ll make any difference, but what I read was an advanced reader’s copy, which might see some alterations before official publication.  Likely any mistakes or misinterpretations are 100% Grade-A Matt, though.


Thursday, February 21, 2013

Book Review: The Vertical Farm




My non-fiction reading of late has mostly been in the realms of history or philosophy.  It’s been a while since I read a science book, and I think I was starting to feel the absence.  So, I grabbed The Vertical Farm off my shelf and jumped in.  It’s a crazy seeming idea.  Or is it?  Build skyscraper farms in the hearts of our urban centers.  Why not.  We need food.  We need jobs.  We need somewhere for our waste to go.  We need new ways of feeding the massive numbers of people on our planet.  Why not build up?  Is everything Dr. Despommier suggests possible?  Will it all work?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  He comes right out on multiple occasions and says that he doesn’t have all the answers.  What he and his grad students came up with are a bunch of ideas which seem like they might work.  They’ll take effort, money, expertise, etc. to put into practice.  But what he proposes doesn’t seem to be outside of our current technological or resource reach.  He’s not proposing something that relies on an assumed advancement that may or may not show up in the next few years.  The primary stumbling block for this sort of project seems to be will.  Are people willing to do it?


There really does seem to be potential for indoor farming, built within city limits.  The ability to control crops, to grow them clean, to reduce water use, waste, and soil depletion.  The potential ability to recycle waste and water, creating clean water.  The ability to reduce the agricultural footprint on the land, one of the largest sources of a multitude of pollutants.  And the potential to create a great many jobs in the places people want to be (cities).  Not to mention reducing the vulnerability of our food sources by decentralizing them and securing them inside, and the reduction in fuel consumption and wasted food that goes into getting harvests across vast distances to the people’s plate.  The potential benefits are quite astounding, and the potential problems, while not negligible, do not seem insurmountable.  But again, it comes down to will.  When you have a large part of the population of what was once one of the most advanced cultures on the planet claiming that the environment is perfectly fine and that nothing we do can really damage it, in spite of incalculable amounts of evidence (and common sense) to the contrary, simply because their sports team (I mean political party) tells them that’s what they should think, I don’t have the greatest faith that the will to lead the world in technology and culture is in the heart Americans anymore.  I hope I’m wrong.  And I know there are plenty of us out there who genuinely think things can be fixed, made better, and advanced again.  If only the petty tribalism and superstition can be cast off, there’s no telling what we could do.


In this book, Dr. Despommier sells his heart out on this idea.  He clearly believes in it, believes it can lead the way to better, healthier, and more sustainable food production for all the world’s people, even the several billion expected in the next couple decades.  But he admits, it’s an idea.  It needs to be tested, tried, explored.  There will likely be problems he and his people have not foreseen, but there may also be additional benefits, new options and possibilities opened by experimenting.  What is sure is that we need to eat.  Traditional farming can not sustain our current numbers for long, and can not sustain our expected numbers at all.  Pollution levels are building up to potentially catastrophic levels.  And one day soon, something will change.  Instead of waiting for that to happen, and then suffering the consequences, he proposes we meet that change on our own terms, direct the way things go in a more thoughtful and logical way.  Nature is amazingly resilient.  As he points out, there are numerous instances where, once left alone, nature has repaired itself in much quicker order than people expected (the Dust Bowl’s rebirth, forests in the North East US, etc.).  But the key is leaving nature alone to fix itself.  That means more self-sustaining (so called ‘green’) cities.  Better public transit, better food distribution, better resource management, etc.  (I always find it funny that so called ‘conservatives’ are the most liberal about wasting resources.  Every old-timey person knows you don’t shit where you eat [pollution], and you don’t waste what you don’t use).  It means an end to farming techniques that have been used and abused since we first stopped roaming the grasslands.  It means learning from our mistakes and doing it better.  And it means finally admitting that we’re taking a hand in the shaping of ourselves and our world, and we should act accordingly.


It may be up to more forward thinking, or more wealthy and experimental nations to break this new ground.  Though that saddens me, like space exploration, I’ll take what I can get.  If it’s Dubai, Germany, or China, someone’s going to need to do something soon.  I wish it would be the United States.  Fifty or sixty years ago, before the religious right’s devastating war on science and reason, it would have been.  But now science is feared, facts ignored, and ignorance is celebrated as a virtue (it even has its own genre of music, sinisterly called Country).  No wonder we have one of the highest infant mortality rates in the developed world.  When a sizable portion of the population not only believes in, but looks forward to an apocalyptic ending of the world (they can keep looking forward to it until the Sun finally expands in another what, six billion years?), how can you get them to plan for the future and for future generations?  But again, like with space, someone else doing it is better than it not getting done at all.  I want to be proud of American advancement in science, technology, and exploration.  But I’ll accept being proud of human advancement in all three.


The book, in its conversational tone, is meant as a discussion starter.  He isn’t giving all the answers, but posing open ended questions.  He isn’t saying, “this is THE answer.”  He’s saying, “this might be AN answer, let’s give it a try, or come up with something better.”  He doesn’t ignore the idea of profit, or of  our less than altruistic motivations, nor does he condemn them.  We are the creatures we’ve evolved to be, and part of that is our hunger for more.  As is being learned more and more, doing things for the greater good of all does not mean giving up personal gain.  Quality of life today and in the future should be important to all of us.  This book is a call to action, to fix or let nature fix, the mistakes of our past, and to learn from them.  It’s time to change the way we farm.  Time to change the way we feed ourselves and others.  Time to stop being a slave to the whims of the environment, and time to stop being an agent of destruction in that environment.  There is plenty of room on this Earth (and possibly on countless other worlds), and we have the tools to live together.  We only lack the willingness to do it.  Read the book for a boost of hope and for some ideas.  It’s a starting point, not a finish.




The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century
Author: Dr. Dickson Despommier
Publisher: Thomas Dunne Books
ISBN: 978-0-312-61139-2

-Matt